Washington [US], March 11: US tariffs are raising concerns that high inflation will damage the country's economy, which is believed to be a possible reason for the rise in gold prices.
In an interview broadcast by Fox News on March 10 (US time), US President Donald Trump refused to predict the possibility of a recession this year. Stressing: "I hate to speculate on such things", President Trump still affirmed that his economic policy will make the US stronger in the long run.
The price to pay
In fact, not long ago, referring to the effectiveness of economic policies when writing on the social network Truth Social, Mr. Trump admitted: "There will be a little pain. Yes, maybe (and maybe not!)... But we will make America great again, and it will all be worth the price."
Meanwhile, analysts assess that the import tax increase policies that Mr. Trump is imposing on goods from a number of economies could cause inflation in the US to increase because in reality, the US still cannot be self-sufficient in the supply of many consumer goods.
In an analysis by Eurasia Group (USA), the world's leading political risk research and consulting unit , sent to Thanh Nien , it was pointed out that Canada, Mexico and China are Washington's top three trading partners, accounting for more than 40% of US imports and exports by 2024. "A trade war could cause inflation and weigh on economic growth in the US, Canada and Mexico," according to Eurasia Group's analysis.
Similarly, analysts from financial groups Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have predicted that US inflation will increase and economic growth will decrease. Even the GDPNow analysis model of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (USA) has predicted that the US economy will not only not grow but may even decrease in the first quarter of 2025. According to data from the US Department of Labor , the US economy created 151,000 more jobs in February, lower than the 160,000 jobs that Reuters quoted experts as predicting. Not only that, also in February, the unemployment rate was at 4.1%, higher than the previous expectation of 4%.
Gold prices are unpredictable
According to Bloomberg analysis on March 10, gold prices have skyrocketed in the first quarter of 2025, reaching consecutive record highs. Last week, world gold prices continued to fluctuate at a high level, around 2,900 USD/ounce and may soon increase further.
The reason stems from investors' concerns about disruptions caused by the Trump administration's trade policies. Gold has become a "shelter" amid many concerns about the US economy in particular and the world in general.
In addition, many investment funds have also increased their gold purchases. Bloomberg cited customs data showing that the value of gold and other precious metals imported into the US reached $30.8 billion in January 2025, while this figure was only $10.7 billion in the last month of 2024. In a further comparison, the average import of this category in 2022 and 2023 only reached an average of about $1.7 billion/month.
Meanwhile, the global economic situation is fraught with risks, especially the risk of a widespread trade war, which could cause many other countries to increase their gold reserves. This has been a trend over the past few years. For example, in 2024, China imported 1,447 tons of gold, equivalent to a value of 90 billion USD. According to the South China Morning Post , China's import volume is 7 times higher in volume and 9 times higher in value than in 2020.
The above facts make it predicted that gold prices in the coming time will likely increase to new record levels, not just stopping at the recent figure of approximately 3,000 USD/ounce.
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper
