Kyiv [Ukraine], March 13: Kyiv's agreement to a ceasefire proposal with Moscow and Washington's restoration of military aid and intelligence sharing is creating a new turning point in the Ukrainian conflict.
Yesterday (March 12), Reuters reported that after high-level talks on March 11 in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine agreed to the US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. In return, Washington agreed to resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv. At the same time, Kyiv also reiterated the need for European partners to participate in the negotiation process.
Waiting for response from Russia
According to the statement after the dialogue, Washington and Kyiv agreed to soon sign a comprehensive agreement on the two sides' cooperation in developing important mineral resources of Ukraine. Indicating that they would forward the ceasefire proposal to Russia, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also admitted that the decision rested with the Kremlin, and at the same time expected to soon reach a full agreement between all parties.
Earlier, Mr. Steve Witkoff, Special Envoy for the Middle East of US President Donald Trump , said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote a letter of apology to Mr. Trump after the argument in front of the press at the White House.
Analyzing last night (March 12), Dr. Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group (USA) - the world's leading political risk research and consulting unit , assessed the above developments as follows: "First, the US ending the suspension of military aid and intelligence provision is very important for Ukraine to continue fighting. In return, Ukraine and the US both announced their acceptance of the terms for a 30-day ceasefire. But it did not mention the issue of territorial changes or make any other promises. The statement also did not include guarantees about NATO, nor did it promise that Kyiv would not join NATO. And that is clearly not what the Russians want to hear."
"Russian President Vladimir Putin is gaining territory, so there is little incentive to accept an immediate ceasefire without any strings attached," Dr. Bremmer commented, adding: "Moscow wants to ensure that Mr. Zelensky is no longer President of Ukraine, Ukraine can never join NATO, and NATO needs to meet more terms, the US withdraws troops from Poland and in the Baltic states."
"The focus of Moscow is on broader discussions on issues such as the Arctic and nuclear arms control, lifting sanctions that the US has imposed on Russia and individual oligarchs, and normalizing relations. But none of these are on the table for Putin," the expert added.
Building an advantage
Responding to Thanh Nien also last night (March 12), US military intelligence expert Carl O. Schuster (former head of a NATO military intelligence unit in the Balkans) assessed: "Looking back, President Trump's purpose in delaying aid to Ukraine was to push President Zelensky to accept ceasefire negotiations and sign a mineral agreement with the US. Mr. Trump also threatened to tighten sanctions against Russia."
Forecasting the upcoming conflict in Ukraine, former Colonel Schuster commented: "The battlefield situation remains deadlocked, as neither side has a significant advantage despite Russia's recent advances in the Kursk region, which is partially occupied by Ukraine. In the next 4-10 weeks, the war will take place on a low scale, but both sides want to gain psychological advantage. On the Ukrainian side, their forces will target the bridge connecting Crimea with Russian territory in the east. For Russia, Moscow will seek to launch a major attack on infrastructure targets, or influential public utilities, or political headquarters. Both sides want to deal a major political blow to the other side, in order to attract support from within their own ranks and reduce the other side's morale at the negotiating table."
"There will be some small-scale but intense front-line operations to seize or hold territory to gain leverage, but neither side has the resources or the will to launch a major offensive. There will be rhetorical threats between Putin and Zelensky in the coming weeks. Each side will appear strong and willing to negotiate to shore up political support at home and among allies. If Trump does not apply enough pressure, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to begin immediately. Negotiations are likely to begin in May," Schuster added.
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper
